2014 MLB Draft First Look: Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon LHP
North Carolina State University- Junior
6'1"    230 Lbs.


Rodon was a pretty solid prospect coming out of Holy Springs High School in North Carolina, but he fell to Milwaukee who took a chance on him as an overslot guy in the 16th round. The Brewers could not get a deal done, so he instead headed to Raleigh to pitch for the Wolfpack. What he has done since arriving on campus has been nothing short of legendary. He became the first Division I freshman to become a Golden Spikes finalist in his 2012 campaign where he posted a 1.57 ERA and went undefeated in nine decisions. He also finished third in the nation with 135 punchouts. In his sophomore season Rodon was not a hundred percent health-wise early on, and as a result was not as consistent from start to start, but down the stretch he was nearly unhittable and practically dragged NC State to Omaha. He finished with 10-3 mark and led the league with 184 strikeouts. It wasn't even close either.

Rodon certainly has the stuff to justify the numbers. After adding about 25 pounds of muscle after high school, his fastball velocity jumped to the 92-95 range in college. He can add subtract from it too, sometimes he will throw it at 89 and others times he can dial it up to 98. Even when he struggled with arm stiffness and his velo dipped, he still threw in the 89-93 range, which is above average from the left side. Despite having elite velocity for a southpaw, his slider is what makes Rodon special. He throws two variations of the breaking ball: one that he uses to get ahead with and can throw for strikes even better than he can with his fastball; the other has sweeping Pacific-to-Atlantic movement that would easily miss bats against major league hitters now. The pitch is worthy of an 80 grade and is the best I have seen on an amateur. His third offering is his change-up, which he does not throw nearly enough of. It is a step behind his other pitches, but he only needs it to be major league average. I think it could be slightly better than that too because it has pretty nice fade.













His slider is Okay...

Rodon is slightly undersized for a starting pitcher, but he is extremely physical. His powerful legs are like tree trunks and they help him generate his impressive velocity. What stands out the most about Rodon on the mound, perhaps even more than his slider, is his bulldog mentality. He attacks hitters and is never afraid to throw inside. He is the kind of guy that managers should fear taking the ball from in a close game. Rodon has a high leg kick and a long stride, but he repeats his delivery very well. The biggest area for improvement in Rodon's game is his fastball command. It is not necessarily bad, because most of the time he is pretty sharp, but when he is off it can get ugly. It is the only thing that separates him from being a slam-dunk candidate to go 1-1 like Stephen Strasburg was in 2009 or David Price in 2007. Otherwise, he is that same caliber of prospect.

For the second straight summer Rodon took his talents to represent the USA and the Collegiate National Team. In 17 innings he did not yield a single run and only allowed five hits while striking out 21. In the season finale he dominated Cuba (where his family hails from) to clinch the sweep in a five-game Friendship Series. He tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings to cap off yet another magnificent season.

2014 MLB Draft First Look: Jeff Hoffman

Jeff Hoffman RHP 

East Carolina University- Junior

6'4"   185 Lbs. 

To kick off our 2014 draft coverage I will profile East Carolina's Jeff Hoffman, who will likely enter next season as a candidate to go in the top five overall picks. Hoffman bypassed Team USA in favor of playing for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks on the Cape, and he is likely the league's top prospect. Last season Hoffman struck out 84 batters and posted a 3.20 ERA in over a hundred innings of work for the Pirates. 

Hoffman can already dial  his fastball up to 97 and comfortably sat in the 92-95 range this spring, and his 6'4" and 185 lb. frame offers a lot more of projection. If he puts on a lot of weight he could be a guy who hits triple digits someday. In his first start on the Cape he generated a lot of buzz by routinely hitting 96 on the gun and impressing scouts with a plus curve. His flashed an impressive change up at times too, all though he has less command of it than his other offerings. His change gives him him the potential to have three plus pitches in his arsenal. 

Hoffman's biggest area for improvement is with his command. If he develops a better feel for pitching he could really break out and be one of the top pitchers off the board in a year loaded with arms. His stuff and upside is right on par with Rodon, Beede, and Cederoth. 

SPEC leader-board Top 20

1.  Byron Buxton OF Minnesota Twins 45.7

2.  Miguel Sano 3B Minnesota Twins 42.6

3.  Xander Bogaerts SS Boston Red Sox 42.0 

4. Albert Almora OF Chicago Cubs 38.0

5. Carlos Correa SS Houston Astros 37.2

6. Maikel Franco 3B Philadelphia Phillies 35.8

7. Oscar Taveras OF St. Louis Cardinals 35.1

8. Francisco Lindor SS Cleveland Indians 35.0

9. Nick Castellanos OF Detroit Tigers 34.6

10. Javier Baez SS Chicago Cubs 34.5 

11. George Springer OF Houston Astros 34.0

12. Christian Yelich OF Miami Marlins 33.9 

13. Addison Russell SS Oakland Athletics 33.8

14. Garin Cecchini 3B Boston Red Sox 33.8

15. Corey Seager 3B Los Angeles Dodgers 32.5

16. Cesar Puello OF New York Mets 32.1

17. Raul Mondesi SS Kansas City Royals 31.4

18. Gregory Polanco OF Pittsburgh Pirates 30.6

19. Jorge Soler OF Chicago Cubs 30.5 

20. Eddie Rosario 2B/OF Minnesota Twins 30.2 

Minor League Radar Midseason Top 50

We are smack-dab in the middle of the minor league season so it is time to compile all the information that this season has given us into an updated list. Many top prospects from the preseason list have graduated including Gerrit Cole, Jurickson Profar, Zach Wheeler, and Wil Myers so this list will look pretty different. Also, 2013 draft picks were not included. I will include a series of SPEC based evaluation like this one for some of the top players on this list.

1. Byron Buxton OF Minnesota Twins
2. Oscar Taveras OF St. Louis Cardinals
3. Xander Bogaerts SS Boston Red Sox
4. Miguel Sano 3B Minnesota Twins
5. Taijuan Walker RHP Seattle Mariners
6. Francisco Lindor SS Cleveland Indians
7. Archie Bradley RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Carlos Correa SS Houston Astros
9. Addison Russell SS Oakland Athletics
10. Javier Baez SS Chicago Cubs
11. Dylan Bundy RHP Baltinore Orioles
12. Jameson Taillon RHP Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Christian Yelich OF Miami Marlins
14. Jorge Soler OF Chicago Cubs
15. Nick Castellanos OF Detroit Tigers
16. Gregory Polanco OF Pittsburgh Pirates
17. Robert Stephenson RHP Cincinnati Reds
18. Aaron Sanchez RHP Toronto Blue Jays
19. Raul Mondesi SS Kansas City Royals
20. George Springer OF Houston Astros
21. Noah Syndergaard RHP New York Mets
22. Gary Sanchez C New York Yankees
23. Albert Almora OF Chicago Cubs
24. Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals
25. Taylor Guerreri RHP Tampa Bay Rays
26. Jonathan Singleton 1B Houston Astros
27. Garin Cecchini 3B Boston Red Sox
28. Corey Seager 3B Los Angeles Dodgers
29. Danny Hultzen LHP Seattle Mariners
30. Austin Hedges C San Diego Padres
31. Alen Hanson 2B/SS Pittsburgh Pirates
32. Kyle Zimmer RHP Kansas City Royals
33. Kolten Wong 2B St. Louis Cardinals
34. David Dahl OF Colorado Rockies
35. Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers
36. Maikel Franco 3B Philadelphia Phillies
37. Yordano Ventura RHP Kansas City Royals
38. Max Fried LHP San Diego Padres
39. Rafael DePaula RHP New York Yankees
40. Kyle Crick RHP San Diego Padres
41. Billy Hamilton OF Cincinnati Reds
42. Julio Urias RHP Los Angeles Dodgers
43. Jesse Biddle LHP Philladelphia Phillies
44. Henry Owens LHP Boston Red Sox
45. Mason Williams OF New YorK Yankees
46. Jorge Alfaro C Texas Rangers
47. Anthony Ranuado RHP Boston Red Sox
48. Justin Nicolino LHP Miami Marlins
49. Alex Meyer RHP Minnesota Twins
50. Marcus Stroman RHP Toronto Blue Jays

Midseason Prospect Profile: Byron Buxton

Player: Byron Buxton    Rank: 1     Pre-Season Rank: 17     Team: Minnesota Twins


The five-tool player might be the most overused label in baseball. Just about any player who has a good power-speed package and can do something else decently well is dubbed "a five-tooler". But in reality, the real thing hardly ever exists. The closet thing we have in the big leagues is a guy like Mike Trout who possess four great tools in his arsenal, but has one, in Trout's case his arm, that lags behind. But Byron Buxton is scary because he is a legitimate five tool player (you can see what I gave him for grades at the bottom of the page) While I always knew he could flash these tools, I highly doubted he would develop them all. I was even more surprised that he developed them so quickly. I thought for sure that Buxton would go through an adjustment period and struggle in his first full big league season. After all, he is still fairly raw and hit just three home runs during his senior year at Appling County High School. But boy was I wrong.

In his first full professional season Buxton has .posted a slash line of .341/.431/.559 for the Cedar Rapids Kernals. He has also stolen 32 bases through his first 68 games. And while Buxton is tearing off the cover of ball right now, he is a guy who can make a difference even when he is slumping at the plate. He can just as easily win you a game with his arm, glove, or speed as he can with his bat. Before being drafted by Minnesota second overall in last year's draft, ridiculous comps like Matt Kemp and Torri Hunter were being thrown at him. Some evaluators even called him "the hybrid of the Upton brothers." At his current trajectory though, it might be possible that those comps are actually selling him short. He has completely blown away just about everybody in baseball, and his combination of of talent and performance is unrivaled by any player in the minor leagues.

     
                                                         

Primer to SPEC for Evaluating Prospects

Intro 

One of my ambitions as a prospect writer has been to create a projection system that combines scouting reports and statistical analysis. The war between scouts and number guys in Major League Baseball has been in the media a lot lately, albeit greatly overblown. With that said, both sides bring very different views to the table, and I think you need both when evaluating a player. I think this is even more important with prospects.

Earlier this week I introduced the concept of SPEC in this post breaking down highly touted Cubs prospects Javier Baez and Jorge Soler. I really liked the idea, but the more I played around with it, the more flaws I discovered. I felt that WAR wasn't the right metric to use because I am not really concerned with the win value of a minor league player. I am instead looking for a metric that will measure the players complete offensive performance to project future performance. Furthermore, the WAR calculator I was using was very easy to understand, but not quite as precise for I would have liked. I found my self making too many educated guesses when evaluating factors like a players defense and base running abilities, which defeats the purpose of an exact statistic.

 wRC+

The statistical component of SPEC will be based Tom Tango's of sabermetric wRC+. Weighted Runs Created Plus is the best way to gauge a players total offensive value. wRC+  is derived from wOBA but also takes into account factors like league environments and ballpark tendencies. It is based off a scale, where 100 is average. Anything above 100, is the percent of runs above league average that a player produced. Conversely, anything below 100 is the percent of runs created below the mean. A players wRC+ can be found on their player page on Fangraphs. For a more detailed examination of wRC+ checkout the following links:
-http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
-http://www.ball-four.com/post/14866772175/stat-of-the-week-wrc-weighted-runs-created-plus
Positional Value
The one component of WAR that I did like and want to carry over into SPEC is the positional value. A players ability to profile and remain at a premium position is a key element of prospecting. A lot of guys will be drafted as shortstops and center fielders, but most have to move off the position at some point down the line.
This list ranks the added value each position brings and show the amount of runs each position is worth over the course of a 150 game season. I want position value to affect the SPEC significantly, so  add or subtract the run values from a wRC+ accordingly.

1. C: +10 runs
2. SS: +8.0 runs
3. 2B: +3 runs
4. CF: +2.5 runs
5. 3B: +2 runs
6. RF: -6.5 runs
7. LF: -8.0 runs
8. 1B: -10 runs
9. DH: -15 runs

Risk Factor
Less than eight percent of players selected in the draft will every get more than a cup of coffee in the major leagues, so every prospect carries a great deal of risk. Ones that are in the lower minors or ones that lack polish are especially risky. And while all prospects develop differently, one way to discern between a prospect that is considered "risky" and one that is considered "safe" is by looking at their strikeout rate compared to the rate at which they draw walks. This will indicate how advanced their approach is and how much development they need to make contact at the big league level. For the purpose of SPEC, the SO-BB ratio of each player will be compared to that of the average ratio between strikeouts and walk percentage which is about 2.3 to 1. For every 0.2 a player is above the average, his risk factor will decrease by 0.01. So if the ratio between a players strikeout and walk percentage is 2.5, one would multiply his SPEC by 0.99. The opposite is also true. If a players ratio is 2.1 one would multiply his SPEC by 1.01. The factor will not really affect the majority of players, but it will punish those that have terrible approaches and strikeout at a really high clip. 

Age Versus Level
Possibly the most intriguing aspect of SPEC is the inclusion of an age vs. level factor. When projecting the futures success of a prospect it is all about development. Nine times out of ten, if a teenager holds his own in full season ball and puts up league average numbers he will be a better prospect than the 23 year old in the same league who might have slightly better stats. Even a year can make a huge difference in the development as a prospect  matures physically and develops a more advanced approach mentally. Time really is everything for baseball players. The following table with the average age of each minor league level is shown below. Additionally, the factors that will be used are also featured. After you have made this calculation, divide by ten for final statistical component.

Level	Average Age	1.5 years older	1.0 Year older	0.5 year  older	0 years older	0.5 year younger	1.0 year younger	1.5 years younger	2.0  years younger
AAA	24.5	Multiply by 0.7	Multiply by 0.8	Multiply by 0.9	Multiply by 1.0	Multiply by 1.1	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.3	Multiply by 1.4
AA	23.5	Multiply by 0.7	Multiply by 0.8	Multiply by 0.9	Multiply by 1.0	Multiply by 1.1	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.3	Multiply by 1.4
A+	22.0	Multiply by 0.7	Multiply by 0.8	Multiply by 0.9	Multiply by 1.0	Multiply by 1.1	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.3	Multiply by 1.4
A	21.5	Multiply by 0.7	Multiply by 0.8	Multiply by 0.9	Multiply by 1.0	Multiply by 1.1	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.3	Multiply by 1.4
A-	21.0	Multiply by 0.7	Multiply by 0.8	Multiply by 0.9	Multiply by 1.0	Multiply by 1.1	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.4
Rookie	19.5	Multiply by 0.7	Multiply by 0.8	Multiply by 0.9	Multiply by 1.0	Multiply by 1.1	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.2	Multiply by 1.4

The Scouting Side
After finding the statistical component of SPEC, there is now a scouting side. For decades scouts have used the traditional scouting scale which ranges from 20 (worst) to 80 (best). The scale is increased by increments of 5, and 50 is considered to be major league average. Scouts evaluate the potential of  five key tools when looking at a hitter: their contact, power, speed, defense, and arm. When the individual grade of each tool is added and then divided by 5 you get your Overall Future Potential (OFP). But their are lots of other things scouts look at when they evaluate a player; like their intangibles, feel for the game, athleticism, and approach. For anything that makes a player standout, scouts use adjusted OFP. Scouts can either bump or lower a players OFP by up to 10 points (but not usually that much) based on what catches their eye.

Once you have a players adjusted OFP you need to divide it by 10, unless you are already using the abbreviated 2-8 scale. Finally, you need to raise that number to the e. This number is the Evaluation part of SPEC.

For more reading on the OFP give this is a read.

Combination
Now that you have your scouting and your statistical totals, all you have to do is add them together. This is your SPEC number. If this is confusing now, I promise that there will be tons of examples in the coming months, as I plan to use it in all of my evaluations. You will be sick of it soon.

Rob Balboni

Prospect Smack-down: The Cubs Big Bats (Using SPEC)

Heading into the year, the Cubs had a very intriguing collection of hitting prospects. The group was lead by a triumvirate comprised of elite talents like Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Albert Almora. During last Thursday's Rule IV Draft, the Cubs went against the industry consensus when they bypassed Oklahoma's  Jonathan Gray and elected to take Kris Bryant with the second overall pick, adding yet another potent bat to their system. Just about every prognosticator predicted that Chicago would pick one of the top college arms, or whoever Houston didn't take between Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray, as Chicago's system was already loaded with bats, but light on arms. However, Bryant's top of the scale 80 power proved to much to pass on, and they chose to draft for the best player available and not by positional need. While this pick was surprising, the BPA strategy has proven time after time again to be the best way to go. Oppose to the NFL and NBA, it will take two to five years for a prospect to develop, and in that tame organizational strengths and needs can change dramatically. It is always safer to just take the best player on your draft board because the worst case scenario is that you have two really good players at one position and you get to use one as trade-bait.

With the emergence of other prospects like Arismendy Alcantara and Daniel Vogelbach, plus the influx of talent from this past draft, the Cubs have one of the very best systems in the game. It is foreseeable that Bryant, Soler, Almora, and Baez could all be top 50, even top 25, prospects by the time my top 100 list is published at the end of the season. But who is the best among such an impressive array of bats?

Kris Bryant is the shiny new toy in the system. He was the most feared hitter in the country at the University of San Diego, and is a front-runner to be the recipient of the Golden Spikes Award. His nation-leading 31 home runs were a record in the BBCOR era, and he flashes easy 80 raw power (best possible grade on the scouting scale). Their are some concerns that because of his size he will have to move across the hot corner to first base, squandering his plus arm. It is also a possibility that because of his athleticism, he could possibly make the transition to right field, where is powerful bat would profile nicely. Regardless of where he winds up on the diamond, you are buying offense first here. Bryant projects as a prototypical middle of the order slugger and he is one of the only prospects in the game that has a chance to hit 35 more home runs annually.
                               
                                                                       Kris Bryant

Bryant's elite power tool is so rare that it could earn him the top spot on my off-season Cub's top prospect list, but I would prefer to see how he performs in the minors before I rank him over Javier Baez and Jorge Soler. With that said, if Bryant signs early and rakes in A-ball, he could absolutely be the Cubs top prospect by years end. Picking between Baez and Soler though is another matter. Both pass the eye test, and both have the stats to back their tools. To decide between the two I am going to test my new SPEC formula, which attempts to boil down scouting grades and performance into a single formula. The Scouting Plus Evaluation Calculation is still currently in the developing stages and it is based on a very crude version of the WAR metric using this simple calculator. What the formula does take into account however, is factors such as age versus level, league climate, and chance for a player to remain at a premium position. For example, the formula will reward a prospect performing against competition that might be a year or two his senior, but will punish one that is too old for his league and behind in the developmental curve. After interpreting the stats in a manner that levels the playing field, a stat that averages out their scouting grades (20-80 scale) is added to it to create SPEC. I hope to get a more detailed set of guidelines for SPEC up this coming week, but for now this will serve as a test run. I will include all the values used in a skeleton chart to walk you through the process.

Javier Baez

Baez was the ninth overall pick in a loaded 2011 draft class, and tore up the Midwest League in his first go-around in the minor leagues. He is well renowned for his lightening quick hands that help him generate tremendous bat speed. He projects to have plus-power and to be a plus-hitter, making him an offensive force. Baez does need to work on his strike-zone discipline and his approach at the plate however. Defensively, Baez's actions are very smooth and he plays with a lot of swagger. He also has a rocket for an arm. Because of his size and lack of plus foot speed he might have to move off short and slide over to third, but it looks more and more likely that he can stick at least for a while there. Baez's flash can sometimes rub opposing players and coaches the wrong way, as he was hit 10 times in just 57 games last year in the MWL. Baez made headlines last week by launching for home runs in a single game. He came into the year as Minor League Radar's 16th best prospect, but could rank even higher next year because of his awesome potential at the plate coupled with his ability to possibly stay at short.

Jorge Soler

Soler defected from Cuba in 2011, and soon after he inked a $30 million deal paid over the course of nine seasons. Soler's hands aren't quite as quick as Baez's, but he probably still has more raw power than Baez. His approach at the plate and ability to make adjustments on the fly is also impressive. With his plus arm and explosive power, Baez fits the bill of the ideal MLB right fielder. Despite his 6'3" 210 frame, Soler moves pretty well for a big guy. He is not a burner, but he could post double digit stolen base totals on an annual basis. 

When these guys are both putting up such good numbers and both close to equal talents, it is hard to pick one over the other. While SPEC is far from a be-all end-all for evaluating prospects, it is a good way to put things into context. The two are similar in tools, but Soler probably has the slight edge. Both have performed well, but Baez's has been clearly more impressive. He has completely annihilated the pitcher-friendly Florida State League despite being very young for the level. In this case the data also supports my gut feeling. Baez's chance to stick at the most premium position on the diamond is the separator for me. For now, I would go Baez, Soler, Bryant, and then Albert Almora; but that could all change by the end of the year. And while the Cubs currently rank 12th out of the 15 National League teams in OBP (.298), I think thins are looking up. 

                                           

                                                                   Javier Baez