Thursday, June 6, 2013

Final Mock Draft

1.1 Jonathan Gray Houston Astros
We are hours away from when Bud Selig will take the podium, but we know barely any more now than we did last month. It is still going to be Appel or Gray, I would be stunned if Lunhow went with Moran. Chicago was negotiating a deal Appel last night, so that could possibly be an indicator that Houston has been scared off. In all honesty, the pick will probably come down to whoever will cut a sweeter deal because there is a shot that they could spring for Manaea with their second pick. I think it will be Gray.
1.2 Mark Appel Chicago Cubs
Unless Houston goes really cheap and takes Moran or Frazier, the choice should and will come down to whoever the Astros don't take. A lot of the people in their organization love Appel, but I hear that Theo is a fan of Gray.
1.3 Kris Bryant Colorado Rockies
It feels like Kris Bryant has been penciled in for this pick all year, but earlier this week the hot rumor was that Colorado was considering another first baseman, Dominic Smith. While I do think that Colorado would take Smith if they were picking in the back half of the top 10, Bryant's talent is still too good to pass up at three.
1.4 Kohl Stewart Minnesota Twins
Stewart has made it pretty clear that he wants to get paid, and so far the pre-draft talks have not gone so well between him and Minnesota. With that said, just about everyone in their organization is enamored with him so they will eventually pony up and pay him. If for some reason they don't, they will go the opposite direction with Reese McGuire by paying him under slot.
1.5 Colin Moran Cleveland Indians
Moran seems like a safe bet here as long as Bryant doesn't fall in their lap. Cleveland typically leans toward college guys, and Moran's talent matches up here better than it does for Houston as 1-1. Braden Shipley and Clint Frazier will also be in the discussion.
1.6 Braden Shipley Miami Marlins
You never really know what the Marlins will do. It looked like they were locked in on a college guy, perhaps Shipley, but then they got involved with Meadows and earlier this week their was buzz about Miami taking Rob Kaminsky. I am very high on Kaminsky, but sixth overall would be too rich for him.
1.7 Clint Frazier Boston Red Sox
The Sox are also wide open; they have been targeting Stewart but the chances he gets here are slim to none. Braden Shipley will be in consideration, as will Moran if he falls here, but I think  the decision will ultimately come down to Frazier and Meadows. It looked like the Sox were in on Meadows after he blew them away in a workout last week, but I think Frazier is gaining momentum again.
1.8 Trey Ball Kansas City Royals
I still think Kansas City will go with an arm here. Bickford has as much helium as anyone right now, but give me Trey Ball. It will hard for them to pass on his combination of present stuff and room for projection. If they go with a bat it is going to be D.J. Peterson.
1.9 Reese McGuire Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has coveted Reese McGuire all year, and I think that if they really want him they are going to have to take him here because it is likely he won't last five more picks.
1.10 J.P Crawford Toronto Blue Jays
The jays are into high-ceiling guys like Ball, Frazier, McGuire, and J.P Crawford. If those first three guys are gone, I think it is a safe bet they go with the latter.
1.11 Austin Meadows New York Mets
Meadows is too good to slide past here. If he is already gone, which is likely, they will go for D.J Peterson. They have also shown some serious interest in Ryne Stanek and Dominic Smith.
1.12 Ryne Stanek Seattle Mariners
The Mariners will be praying for Meadows and McGuire, but I see that as less than likely. If they are forced to go with a pitcher, Stanek could be their pick.
1.13 Hunter Renfore San Diego Padres
San Diego has bought into the Bickford hype, but I think they will be in favor of Hunter Renfore here. I sill think that he could be the second best hitter in this draft after Bryant.
1.14 D.J. Peterson Pittsburgh Pirates
Peterson could easily be gone here, but if he isn't, expect Pittsburgh to pounce on him. Along with McGuire, he would give their organization an impressive influx of talented hitters. The enigmatic Sean Manaea will also be a factor here.
1.15 Alex Gonzalez Arizona Diamondbacks
I expect Arizona to go with Alex "Chi-Chi" Gonzalez, but Dominic Smith and Phil Bickford will also be in play.
1.16 Dominic Smith Philadelphia Phillies
If Smith is here for Philadelphia, then they should be ecstatic. His high water mark is three with Colorado, but he could just as easily last until here.
1.17 Chris Anderson Chicago White Sox
Chicago has always had an affinity for athletic, hulking outfielders, so Austin Wilson and Aaron Judge would make sense, but I think they could also seek a college arm. Chris Anderson has not had a great season, but he entered the year as a top 10 talent and a lot of clubs still view him as a first round guy.
1.18 Phil Bickford Los Angeles Dodgers
Since the Dodgers have elected to take a prep arm with seven of their last eleven first round picks, I think that this trend will continue this year. They will have an array of talented high school arms to choose from, including Bickford, Clarkin, Serrano, and Harvey.
1.19 Tim Anderson St. Louis Cardinals
Another guy who has been shooting up boards of late is Tim Anderson. He is the best shortstop in this draft and has garnered comparisons to Orlando Hudson. This pick seams to be gaining a lot of momentum within the industry.
1.20 Jonathan Crawford Detroit Tigers
Detroit loves just about anyone who can light up a radar gun, and Jonathan Crawford fits that bill perfectly. With that said, I wouldn't take him here because I foresee him winding up in the pen.
1.21 Nick Ciuffo Tampa Bay Rays
This pick has Tampa Bay written all over it; and I think it is a good one too. Ciuffo is hybrid catcher that can make a difference at both at the plate and behind it, ultimately I think he will rival McGuire as the best catcher to come out of this class.
1.22 Hunter Harvey Baltimore Orioles
Eric Jagielo comes to mind here, but I think the Orioles will go in favor of Hunter Harvey. It is an added bonus that he will be easy to negotiate with and likely will sign slightly under slot.
1.23 Bill McKinney Texas Rangers
Texas has shown a great deal of interest in Oscar Mercado, but he will almost certainly be around with their next pick. They have also been connected to Bill McKinney, who has one of the purest swings in the draft.
1.24 Rob Kaminsky Oakland Athletics
The Yankees will be hoping that Kaminsky will fall to them at 26, but there is decent chance that Oakland will snag him here. He is one of the best southpaws available for me.
1.25 Matt Krook San Francisco Giants
They Giants have been linked to San Francisco product Matt Krook for a while now, and they probably won't pass up on him here. There is also a chance that they could take Ian Clarkin if he is still around.
1.26 Ian Clarkin New York Yankees
 The Yankees will get to play with the board a little because they have two more picks at the end of the round, but I think they might choose Ian Clarkin if he is available. Eric Jagielo and Austin Wilson will also be strong considerations for them.
1.27 Phil Ervin Cincinnati Reds
If Ervin lasts this long it will be hard for the Reds to pass up on him. He had a great summer on the Cape and carried his momentum into this spring. They also appear to players for Kyle Serrano, but he won't be cheap.
1.28 Devin Williams St. Louis Cardinals
Since I pegged them going with a college guy at 19, I think they will try to balance it with a high school arm now. Devin Williams is a homegrown talent that could be a serious option here.
1.29 Marco Gonzales Tampa Bay Rays
It has been no secret that the Rays have been in on Gonzales all year, and I think they should get a shot at  him here.
1.30 Travis Demerritte Texas Rangers
Demeritte has been high on the Rangers list for a while now. I don't think he has a chance to stick at short, but his bat could prove to be potent.
1.31 Josh Hart Atlanta Braves
An ideal world they would go for Krook, but with San Francisco blocking them that is not likely. Alternatives included Hart, Balog, and Green.
1.32 Eric Jagielo New York Yankees
Jagielo could certainly go earlier, but if the Yankees could snag him here he would complement a prep arm they might take with their first pick very nicely. Jagielo can flat out hit, and I think he could be a steal if he can stick at the hot corner.
1.33 Austin Wilson New York Yankees
Based on talent Wilson has no business still being on the board, but their are not a lot of scenarios in which I can see him going earlier than this. He still possesses monster tools, and his upside is extremely high for a college player.

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